The tech times, they are a-changing. Companies are laying off big time and basically across the board, meaning companies large and small, or are in hiring freeze mode. Google employees weren’t happy when they were told that their travel and swag budgets were being cut. Oh, in case you didn’t see the memo, the days of Tech Entitlement are over, too. The economy isn’t what it was during the halcyon days of tech and, news flash – the tech sector is not immune.

Speaking of behemoths, Amazon Abandons Home Delivery Robot Tests in Latest Cost Cuts, Reuters reported. Called Scout, “The slow-moving devices, accompanied by human minders during tests, were designed to stop at a front door and pop open their lids so a customer could pick up a package. Amazon said the battery-powered robots were part of an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in its delivery operations.”

Amazon is feeling the slower sales, too. Then again, the lockdowns are over, and people can go past their doorsteps once again and shop. With many smaller stores shut down in the lockdown era. Amazon was a go-to, and boom! Hockey stick growth. Now, not so much and they’re cost-cutting too, given their now ‘slow growth.’ Did the company think they’d maintain lockdown-level growth or conditions forever? Even hockey sticks have an end point – something tech and tech investors could seemingly never quite grok.

 

People don’t generally take a 360 degree – or an especially long-term – view. Investors, too. If the Big Guys are in belt tightening, ruh-roh. As we saw with the lockdowns, changing circumstances create different needs, and we will remind you once again that no one stays on top forever, and that some of the most successful companies rise during down markets, Google being a prime example.

The times, they are a-changing.

 

Are investors more circumspect than they’ve been the past decade? Yes, at least for now, but massive funds are still being raised and investors always keep dry powder on hand for those outliers who inspire that a-ha! moment. Although not everyone can readily see them,  which is why some funds are more successful than others. It’s those funds and investors who take a 360-degree – and long term – view that will be the outliers as well when those lists of Top Funds are compiled.

And beware. Said Pitch Book, Venture capital’s record dry powder has its limits. “On one side of the argument are dry powder optimists: those who believe the estimated $290.1 billion available to VC firms, according to PitchBook data, is enough to outlast any downturn… The naysayers respond that the impact of dry powder levels on future behavior is overstated and that the figure is more of a lagging indicator than a bellwether of the market outlook. Speaking on the “All In” podcast, Craft Ventures co-founder David Sacks warned against “overly optimistic, overly rosy” projections based on the state of dry powder… Reasonable people can disagree, but high levels of dry powder are no guarantee of venture’s unstoppable growth…(plus) VC firms can adjust their pace of deployment in order to satisfy their LPs needs and get the best deal possible.”

 

Nothing replaces taking a 360-degree view of the landscape and sussing out the pain points – and weak spots. Then project out to determine how massive a problem you’re potentially looking at and take it from there. Re long-term view, having a crystal ball helps, and failing that, there’s always being observant and looking for the white space that others may be missing.

As well as possible long-term problems.

Think spherically: 360 degrees, plus the view from 10,000 feet – and more than 20 minutes into the future, to quote Max Headroom.

Example:  Electric vehicles are one of the foci du jour. A number of states are mandating that only EVs be sold in their states by 2035, as green is also a focus du jour. 2035??? Nothing like playing to the perceived sentiment du jour and kicking the can far enough down the road that they will have left office when the problems – which they’re creating – kick in. As for 360-degree thinking and planning, this just in: Electric vehicles catching fire in Florida after Hurricane Ian, and speaking of ‘green,’ they’re not ordinary fires. Lithium batteries and salt water don’t mix, and it takes thousands of gallons of water to extinguish such a fire. (Let’s not forget the London bus explosion: Five electric buses go up in a fireball – smoke seen for miles). Unforeseen problems are nothing new to tech, which often releases, say, OS upgrades, warts and all, and how many patches are then released to fix those bugs? Then there are the numerous hacks that tech experiences, usually as a result of third-party software. Why isn’t tech more vigilant or consider long-term consequences? Speaking of which, just late last week Bloomberg News reported that Facebook Is Warning 1 Million Users About Stolen Usernames, Passwords.

The California energy grid was maxed out this summer due to the heat. EV owners were asked not to charge their vehicles. Well, what about delivery trucks? In California, they, too, are required to be electric. Does the nation’s food distribution system – or at least the items coming from California, which is considerable, factoring in both the ports receiving goods from Asia, and produce from the state itself – come to a grinding halt during a heat wave?

 

360-degree thinking is long overdue in the tech world, especially since software et al is continuing to sink its collective teeth into almost every aspect of our world, to paraphrase Mark Andreesen. Playing it fast and loose – meaning not looking at the bigger and long-term picture – just won’t cut it anymore.

 

We’re in something of a period of transition at the moment. The halcyon days of the Web 2 Era may be over, but when one door closes, another one opens. And it’s high time to think different.

Hockey stick growth is all well and good, but at this juncture, that stick is only part of what’s going on, on the field. More important to pay attention to where the puck is going and into which sink hole it could possibly land, as we go onward and forward.