Don’t Look Now, But Did a Bubble Just Burst?
If you’re starting a tech company and are in search of outside investment, your chances of raising that funding will rise exponentially if you’re potentially a unicorn. But there is something that you need to understand: that tech is driven as much by hype and press as it is by investment dollars. It’s the tech industry that produces the rock stars of today – and some of that spotlight has reflected back onto the industry’s now high-profile investors. But careful there: if you’re wondering why Adam Neumann’s name is still in the headlines, albeit via Monday morning quarterbacking and as a cautionary tale, his outsized ego is a wakeup call to the media’s – and some investors’ – sometimes priorities: their exaltation of the cult of personality, their acquiescence to the notion that it’s acceptable for a single individual to have enormous control over a company or vertical, and the idea that investment dollars trump common sense, even when the math doesn’t quite add up. Cases in point: Elizabeth Holmes (Theranos), Adam Neumann and yes, even Mark Zuckerberg qua his foray into the financial world with Libra.
First, if you’re going to hang your hat on the Cult of Personality, good idea to take a bold stance at some point – and aim for a hot button. In the We Company’s case, we will remind you that not too long ago, We advocated reimbursing employees’ meals at events only if they were meatless, in the name of corporate responsibility, of course. ““New research indicates that avoiding meat is one of the biggest things an individual can do to reduce their personal environmental impact,” (We co-founder Miguel) McKelvey told employees. WeWork estimates the ban will save 445 million pounds of CO2 emissions, 16.7 billion gallons of water, and 15 million animals by 2023,” Bloomberg reported and never mind that Neumann’s contribution to the reduction of carbon emissions imperative was to travel on a company-owned Gulfstream – a fact that somehow never made it into that reporting.
So-called unicorn and media math are interesting, if not curious: a tech company can be valued in the billions, despite the fact that it has never operated at anything but a loss. Equally curious: In 2014, Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes was #3 on Forbes list of Youngest Richest American (Age 30; Net Worth: $4.5B). Two years later, following the Theranos debacle, Net Worth: $0. “Earlier this year, Adam Neumann appeared on Forbes’ list of the world’s richest people, with a net worth of $4.1 billion,” Forbes reported. “Today, Forbes is lowering our estimate of his wealth to at most $600 million.” Never mind that the We Company postponed the IPO until the end of the year. For all we know, the company may be bankrupt by then. But Neumann is a visionary: he had the good sense to take nearly $700M out of the company prior to the IPO.
Not everyone, it seems, was duped by the hype.
So why all of the Adam Neumann ink? Given the general tech mindset, his sudden demise was mystifying. We was meant to be a unicorn. How did it go so far off script?
The reality: Neumann was only ever a billionaire on paper and by way of perception. In an earlier era, he would have been labeled a snake oil salesman.
Know what caused the bottom to fall out of the market in Web 1.0 days? Too much money chasing too much youth and inexperience. And FOMO – too much ego-driven money in the mix. If you haven’t been paying attention, investment rounds have gotten larger – Strictly VC now divides funding announcements into Massive and Big-But-Not-Crazy-Big Fundings. And Smaller Fundings, which are invariably multiple millions – in seed. Which hasn’t been leaving a lot of air – or money – in the market downstream.
Speaking of money/currency, it seems that Facebook’s libra cryptocurrency coalition is falling apart as eBay, Visa, Mastercard and Stripe jump ship. The presumably coming regulatory oversight aside, with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg being summoned to testify before Congress yet again, this time in regard to its cryptocurrency project Libra, the aforementioned companies are no doubt well aware of Facebook’s role in helping to decimate the ad revenue of its news media partners and consequently, the news industry itself. Why should they expect a different result?
Lest we forget, he who controls the platform rules the world – and dictates the terms. Again, simple tech math.
Adam Neumann was definitely a wake-up call and in the cold light of day, will hopefully shine a different light for the investment community. Between Theranos and We, there’s no doubt that there are many an LP out there who are pissed, especially given the series of misses with the fake tech companies recent more or less failed IPOs. The real question is: will the long overdue tech bubble at long last burst?
By our estimation, it may well just have done so. Onward and forward.